Case Study - Ofgem/DTI: Security of Energy Supplies

Client: Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)
Sector: central government
Services delivered: risk modelling

Over recent years, concerns have increased over longer term energy security as we become increasingly dependent on gas imported from Europe and beyond.

The DTI and Ofgem established a Joint Energy Security of Supply (JESS) working group to assess and monitor potential security of supply indicators. Early on JESS decided that a risk analysis approach should be investigated and Risk Solutions was asked to explore how the Influence Modelling technique could be used to assess the effect of diverse influences on the security of energy supplies.

We developed a family of inter-related models to evaluate the risk of a critical supply/demand imbalance of gas or electricity over different time horizons. The models consider a wide range of factors and are designed to help JESS identify which of these (in isolation or in combination) are the most important. Ofgem and the DTI are now exploring the capabilities of the models and are considering alternative ways in which they could be developed.