Helping Defra tackle complexity

During 2019 and 2021, Risk Solutions as part of a CECAN Ltd team helped develop the Complexity Evaluation Framework and the Theory of Change Toolkit to help Defra policy-makers, analysts and commissioners navigate the complexity inherent in their work.  more...

Rail service performance tipping points

If railway operators can avoid tipping points, then not only will service performance improve, but it will be easier to identify reliable solutions to poor performance. In partnership with Network Rail we used rail system modelling to identify the conditions that cause performance tipping points for Anglia rail services.   more...

Timetable tuning to improve performance

Small delays, or subthreshold delays as they are called in the rail industry, are the cause of many services arriving late at stations. Previous modelling for the Rail Safety and Standards Board with Greater Anglia showed that on time arrivals can reduce by up to 23% when services suffer from this type of subthreshold delay. This is a relatively large drop in performance, and the challenge for the rail industry is finding the cause of these delays and eliminating them to improve performance.  more...
Continuous improvement

Rail performance investigation tools

Risk Solutions brought together performance managers from five UK train operating companies to discuss the data and tools they use to investigate train service performance and identify ways to improve passenger journeys.  The aim of this research work, funded by City, University of London, was to identify strengths and weaknesses with the current analytical processes, […]  more...

Heat Networks Investment Project

Risk Solutions and partners are delivering a multi-wave process and impact evaluation of BEIS' Heat Networks investment project, which aims to help scale up the market for heat networks in the UK by investing £320m in individual projects across England and Wales.  more...

Valuing FSA R&D Activity

The Food Standard Agency are an independent Government department working across England, Wales and Northern Ireland to protect public health and consumers' wider interests in food. Their aim is to use their expertise and influence so that people can trust that the food they buy and eat is safe and honest. This project, delivered by Risk Solutions with support from Live Economics and CECAN Ltd, is to develop a methodology that FSA can use to assess the business case, and make decisions, regarding funding of research and development projects, whose outcomes are often uncertain and long term.  more...

Understanding the Impact of Interacting Risks

Climate change affects many sectors, but the way that climate change risks interact between sectors is not well understood. Risk Solutions are working with climate resilience experts from WSP, ADAS and UCL, helping the Climate Change Committee (CCC) better understand how climate related risks interact and how the effects of risks cascading through systems can affect impacts. The study represents an important new source of evidence for the UK governments next climate change risk assessment.  more...

Water Abstraction Reform

Risk Solutions helped Defra design and test changes to the regime that govern how users can abstract water from rivers and ground water aquifers, in response to increasing pressures from demographic and climate change. We managed a multi-disciplinary team that engaged water users, environmental groups and regulators in the construction of an integrated water resource and economic behavioural model - using the technique of agent based modelling.  more...

Development of a Network Performance Model

The network performance model (NPM) was developed for Highways England by Risk Solutions. It is a software model that supports analysis of traffic performance on the strategic road network (SRN). It is used by the HA national intelligence unit (NIU) to support their analysis of network performance. Highways England uses this type of analysis to characterise the past performance of its roads, as well as to project scenarios about its expected future performance given various road investment strategies.  more...

Foot and Mouth

Following the 2001 outbreak of FMD, Defra imposed a 20-day standstill period prohibiting any livestock movements off-farm following the arrival of an animal. The 20-day rule caused significant difficulties for farmers. The Lessons Learned Inquiry, which reported in July 2002, recommended that the 20-day standstill remain in place pending a detailed cost-benefit analysis of the standstill regime. This was commissioned in September 2002.   more...