If railway operators can avoid tipping points, then not only will service performance improve, but it will be easier to identify reliable solutions to poor performance. In partnership with Network Rail we used rail system modelling to identify the conditions that cause performance tipping points for Anglia rail services.
Who We Work For
We work with blue chip organisations across industry and the public sector, applying our risk-based approach to a wide range of challenging problems. Our broad client base enables us to keep abreast of the latest analytical methods and bring that experience to bear in other sectors.
Network Rail
Network Rail owns, operates and develops Britain’s railway infrastructure, it is the UK rail system operator.
Timetable tuning to improve performance
Small delays, or subthreshold delays as they are called in the rail industry, are the cause of many services arriving late at stations. Previous modelling for the Rail Safety and Standards Board with Greater Anglia showed that on time arrivals can reduce by up to 23% when services suffer from this type of subthreshold delay. This is a relatively large drop in performance, and the challenge for the rail industry is finding the cause of these delays and eliminating them to improve performance.
National Audit Office
The National Audit Office (NAO) scrutinises public spending for Parliament. Their public audit perspective helps Parliament hold government to account and improve public services.
Department for Transport
DfT works with its agencies and partners to support the transport network that helps the UK’s businesses and gets people and goods travelling around the country. DfT plans and invests in transport infrastructure to keep the UK on the move.
Drug Driving evaluation
Our evaluation of the first year of operation of the drug driving legislation introduced in 2015 has been published by the Department for Transport.
Longer Semi-Trailer Trial
GB Longer Semi-trailer Trial (LST): UPDATE 10 May 2023
DfT Announces new regulations for widespead use of LSTs and end date for trialHighways England
Highways England operates, maintains and improves England’s motorways and major A roads. Highways England is responsible to DfT for a rolling five-year 'Road Investment Strategy' programme. (Roads in the other UK nations are managed by equivalent bodies.)
Developing a Safety Risk Model
Risk Solutions has developed a comprehensive Safety Risk Model that analyses the risks to road users, road workers and Traffic Officers associated with the operation, maintenance and improvement of the Strategic Road Network (SRN) in England. The work involves sophisticated data analytics and visualisation of complex road safety risk.
Development of a Network Performance Model
The network performance model (NPM) was developed for Highways England by Risk Solutions. It is a software model that supports analysis of traffic performance on the strategic road network (SRN). It is used by the HA national intelligence unit (NIU) to support their analysis of network performance.
Highways England uses this type of analysis to characterise the past performance of its roads, as well as to project scenarios about its expected future performance given various road investment strategies.
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Defra IS the UK government department responsible for safeguarding our natural environment, supporting the UK's world-leading food and farming industry, and sustaining a thriving rural economy. Defra's very broad remit means it plays a major role in all our day-to-day lives, from the food we eat and the air we breathe, to the water we drink
Foot and Mouth
Following the 2001 outbreak of FMD, Defra imposed a 20-day standstill period prohibiting any livestock movements off-farm following the arrival of an animal. The 20-day rule caused significant difficulties for farmers. The Lessons Learned Inquiry, which reported in July 2002, recommended that the 20-day standstill remain in place pending a detailed cost-benefit analysis of the standstill regime. This was commissioned in September 2002.
Helping Defra tackle complexity
During 2019 and 2021, Risk Solutions as part of a CECAN Ltd team helped develop the Complexity Evaluation Framework and the Theory of Change Toolkit to help Defra policy-makers, analysts and commissioners navigate the complexity inherent in their work.
Water Abstraction Reform
Risk Solutions helped Defra design and test changes to the regime that govern how users can abstract water from rivers and ground water aquifers, in response to increasing pressures from demographic and climate change. We managed a multi-disciplinary team that engaged water users, environmental groups and regulators in the construction of an integrated water resource and economic behavioural model – using the technique of agent based modelling.
Department for Business, Energy…
BEIS's task is to build an economy that works for everyone in the UK, so that there are great places in every part of the country for people to work and for businesses to invest, innovate and grow.
Innovate UK (UKRI)
Innovate UK is part of UK Research and Innovation, a non-departmental public body funded by grant-in-aid from the UK government. Innovate UK drives productivity and economic growth by supporting businesses to develop and realise the potential of new ideas, including those from the UK’s world-class research base.
Travel in Britain in 2035: Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovation
The transport sector is crucial to the UK economy as a whole, and successful transport technology innovations will benefit not just the transport sector but all areas of life that rely on the movement of people and goods. This study focused on using a scenario approach to explore which transport innovations would give the biggest return in terms of maximising the efficiency of the existing transport infrastructure, and where the UK technology sector could make a difference, by the year 2035
The Environment Agency
Environment Agency works to create better places for people and wildlife, and support sustainable development EA is an executive non-departmental public body sponsored by Defra.
Water Abstraction Reform
Risk Solutions helped Defra design and test changes to the regime that govern how users can abstract water from rivers and ground water aquifers, in response to increasing pressures from demographic and climate change. We managed a multi-disciplinary team that engaged water users, environmental groups and regulators in the construction of an integrated water resource and economic behavioural model – using the technique of agent based modelling.
Food Standards Agency
FSA is a non-ministerial Government department working across England, Wales and Northern Ireland to protect public health and consumers' wider interests in food. It make sure that food is safe and what it says it is
Valuing FSA R&D Activity
The Food Standard Agency are an independent Government department working across England, Wales and Northern Ireland to protect public health and consumers’ wider interests in food. Their aim is to use their expertise and influence so that people can trust that the food they buy and eat is safe and honest. This project, delivered by Risk Solutions with support from Live Economics and CECAN Ltd, is to develop a methodology that FSA can use to assess the business case, and make decisions, regarding funding of research and development projects, whose outcomes are often uncertain and long term.
Animal and Plant Health Agency
APHA work to safeguard animal and plant health for the benefit of people, the environment and the economy. APHA is an executive agency of DEFRA.
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation is an independent social change organisation working to solve UK poverty
UK Committee on Climate Change
CCCS purpose is to advise the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change. CCC is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008.
Local Government Association
LGA, the national voice of local government, working with councils to support, promote and improve local government.
Health and social care
The integration of our Health and Social Care systems to provide seamless care is a major challenge of our time. The Local Government Association (LGA) has a series of initiatives aimed a supporting local health and care leaders in making this integration a reality. As they do so, Risk Solutions has been supporting the LGA by evaluating the efficacy of their interventions.
National Audit Office
The National Audit Office (NAO) scrutinises public spending for Parliament. Their public audit perspective helps Parliament hold government to account and improve public services. NAO's recommendations and reports help government improve public services.
The National Audit Office Value-for-Money
Since we were first appointed in 2009 Risk Solutions have provided independent comment on over 100 National Audit Office (NAO) value for money reviews and investigations. We review a sample of reports each year against fixed criteria including the use of quantitative and qualitative data and analysis and how well these are synthesised to produce conclusions and where appropriate recommendations.
High Speed 2
High Speed 2 is the new railway that will be the backbone of Britain’s transport network. Learn more about the project and HS2 Ltd, the company building it.
HS2 running with existing rail services
Risk Solutions are using their SaviRPM rail performance modelling tool with West Coast Partnership Development to explore the potential performance impacts of HS2 on conventional rail, where the services share the same routes. Modelling various carefully designed timetable options will demonstrate which approach best integrates the new high speed services with existing national and local […]
Value for money decision support tool for HS2
HS2 Ltd faces many design decisions in the delivery of high speed rail in the UK. Each design decision has cost implications, and crucially, implications for delivery of benefits. WSP and Risk Solutions have created a whole life value tool for HS2. HS2 and ITS contractors are now using the tool to measure and compare the value of various options, and TO inform design decisions to ensure the benefits of HS2 are realised.
Rail Safety and Standards Board Ltd
All the major stakeholders in the GB railways are members of RSSB. Through research, standards and analysis RSSB helps its members deliver a better, safer railway.
Does social distancing impact rail performance?
New modelling work and research for RSSB have shown that although social distancing might increase dwell times, the overall performance impact is not significant nor widespread. As train operators welcome passengers back to the railway, the industry needed to understand the impact of increasing numbers and continued social distance to better manage network performance. Good […]
Rail performance modelling
Risk Solutions and City University of London have successfully delivered research for RSSB to explore knock-on train delays, partnering with Greater Anglia, Great Western Railway and Network Rail. The result is Savi, a Rail Performance Model with a set of powerful interactive visualisations of modelling results.
Savi is now being used by train operators and Network Rail to explore the most effective ways to improve service performance and build more resilient timetables.
Research award to understand knock-on delay in rail services
Risk Solutions and City University of London have successfully delivered research for RSSB to explore knock-on train delays, partnering with Great Western Railway. The result was creation of a prototype Rail Performance Model and a set of powerful interactive visualisations of modelling results, that can be used to help train operators and Network Rail understand the causes and consequences of reactionary delay.
New Economic Knowledge Services
NEKS has been established to help policy makers, regulators, business and finance navigate these challenging times by drawing on new thinking and techniques in economics and other disciplines that take seriously the complex and uncertain nature of these systems, and the importance of understanding real human behaviour and institutions.
Agent Based Modelling: what is the big deal about policy?
This event run by NEKS (‘New Economic Knowledge Services ltd’ https://www.neks.ltd/) allowed attendees to better understand how ABMs are best used to inform policy and regulatory strategies. It is given by people who have both built and used ABMs. Jonathan Hyde from Risk Solutions presents at the event, describing how our agent based models solve real world complex problems.